Fed Rate Expectations Today
Treasury yields price a hold on Oct 28 (88%), a likely hike on Dec 9 (82%), and about 4 quarter-point hikes by Dec 2027, taking fed funds to roughly 4.83%.
Probability of each target range
| Meeting | Hike | 3.75–4.00 | 4.00–4.25 | 4.25–4.50 | 4.50–4.75 | 4.75–5.00 | 5.00–5.25 | 5.25–5.50 | 5.50–5.75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | 12% | 88 | 12 | ||||||
| Dec 09, 2026 | 82% | 16 | 74 | 10 | |||||
| Jan 27, 2027 * | 19% | 13 | 63 | 22 | 2 | ||||
| Mar 17, 2027 * | 21% | 10 | 53 | 31 | 6 | ||||
| Apr 28, 2027 * | 30% | 7 | 40 | 37 | 13 | 2 | |||
| Jun 09, 2027 * | 35% | 5 | 28 | 38 | 22 | 6 | 1 | ||
| Jul 28, 2027 * | 42% | 3 | 19 | 34 | 29 | 13 | 3 | ||
| Sep 15, 2027 * | 48% | 1 | 11 | 27 | 31 | 20 | 8 | 2 | |
| Oct 27, 2027 * | 49% | 1 | 6 | 19 | 29 | 26 | 14 | 5 | 1 |
| Dec 08, 2027 * | 43% | 4 | 14 | 25 | 27 | 19 | 9 | 2 |
Swipe the table sideways for the outer ranges.
Meetings more than six months out are lower confidence: Treasury yields cannot separate one meeting from the next as cleanly that far ahead. Dates marked * are tentative until the Fed confirms them at the prior meeting.
Open the Rate Outlook tab →Source: U.S. Treasury daily par yield curve; effective fed funds rate and target range, Federal Reserve (H.15), via FRED. Market-implied, not a forecast. This page is RiskCurve's own calculation; for futures-priced probabilities see CME FedWatch.
This page shows the market-implied path for the federal funds rate and the probability of each target range after every scheduled FOMC meeting. It is RiskCurve’s own calculation from public-domain data: the daily U.S. Treasury par yield curve, the effective fed funds rate and the target range from the Federal Reserve (H.15, via FRED), and the published FOMC meeting dates. It is a market-implied reading, not a forecast.
How it is built. Bill and short-note yields are converted to continuously compounded zero rates. A bill-versus-fed-funds basis adjustment lines the short curve up with the effective fed funds rate, because the two sit at slightly different levels. The path is then a least-squares fit of one constant rate per inter-meeting segment between now and two years out, with a smoothing term and an anchor to today’s effective rate. Each meeting’s implied change is split into whole 25 basis-point steps plus a fractional remainder, and the per-meeting odds are chained to give the probability of each target range.
Reading it. The near meetings carry the most information; beyond about six months the Treasury curve cannot separate one meeting from the next as cleanly, so those meetings are labelled lower confidence. This is not CME FedWatch data — for futures-priced probabilities, use the CME FedWatch link on the Rate Outlook tab.