US Treasury Yield Curve Today — 10Y–2Y Spread 0.41%
The US Treasury yield curve plots the yield on government debt across maturities, from 3-month bills out to 30-year bonds. It is the single most watched chart in macro because it prices the market’s expectation of future growth, inflation and Federal Reserve policy all at once.
The headline number here is the 10Y–2Y spread — the 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield — currently 0.41% as of September 30, 2026, +0.04pp versus the prior session. When that spread is positive the curve is described as upward sloping or “normal”: investors demand more compensation for locking money up for a decade than for two years. When it turns negative the curve is inverted, which has preceded every US recession since the 1950s, typically by 6 to 18 months.
An inversion does not mechanically cause a recession. It is a signal that the market believes policy is too tight relative to where growth is heading — shorter yields stay elevated because the Fed is holding rates high, while longer yields fall as traders price eventual cuts and weaker activity. The re-steepening that follows an inversion is often the more dangerous phase, because it usually means the Fed is cutting into a deteriorating economy.
For investors the curve shapes positioning across the whole portfolio: bank net interest margins, the attractiveness of duration, the shape of carry and roll-down trades, and the relative value between credit and Treasuries. We track it daily and chart the full curve on the RiskCurve dashboard.
It is unchanged over the period to a month ago (Aug 31, 2026), and 0.15pp lower than a year ago (Sep 30, 2025).
It is below the 0.51% average of the period we track, which has run from 0.20% (Sep 21, 2026) to 0.74% (Jan 30, 2026) — the highest since Sep 08, 2026.
10Y–2Y Spread — recent values
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | 0.41% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 0.37% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 0.32% |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 0.36% |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 0.31% |
| Sep 23, 2026 | 0.26% |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 0.25% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 0.20% |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 0.25% |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 0.27% |
Values as published by the source. Macro series are revised after first release; this table shows the most recent vintage. Saved dataset: JSON.